DORAL, FL – According to NOAA, there could 19 to 25 named storms this hurricane season. The preseason forecast had called for 13 to 19.
An average season produces 12 named storms, that is tropical storms and hurricanes combined, of which six are hurricanes with, on average, three of them being major.
But this hurricane season has already produced nine named storms, including two hurricanes such as Isaias, and could become one of the most active in recorded history, since this is the first time NOAA has forecast that many.
“We’ve never forecast up to 25 named storms,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in a telephone news conference, as reported by Sun Suntinel.
“This year, we expect more, stronger, and longer-lived storms than average,” said Bell, as quoted by the journal. He also said there’s an 85 percent chance of this becoming a reality.
Additionally, the forecast called for 7 to 11 to hurricanes, up from 6 to 10 in the previous forecast, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes with wind speeds of at least 111 mph, as previously forecast.
On a more positive note, Bell said this prediction still falls short of the 2005’s 28 named storms, when Hurricane Wilma and Katrina hit land.
“2005 was more conducive to more hurricanes than what we’re seeing now…That’s why we’re not predicting a record hurricane season at this time.”
Florida could experience this scenario during the peak period, running from mid-August through October, which tops out around September 10. During this time, the majority of hurricanes, including the most aggressive ones, are produced.
About what factors account for the abundance of activity during this hurricane season, it was said it has a lot to do with warm ocean temperatures and a reduction in wind shear, while the presence of a climate phenomenon called La Niña may come into play as well.
There is currently little storm activity over the Atlantic basin. The remnants of Hurricane Isaias were expected to dissipate Thursday over Canada.